The guy stood next to me at the bar gestured to the waitress that she should serve me first,
by merit of primacy of location. He gave me a small but genuine smile. He was wiry, with a
bald head and a gun tattooed on the side of his head. I’m gonna say it’s a Glock, but the truth
is that’s the only gun of that general shape that I have a word for. Given the look of the guy I
was quite happy to defer and let him get served first.

When a guy has a gun tattooed on the side of his head, there are only two assumptions you
can make. And only one of those assumptions is safe.

The smile seemed genuine.

He could have been a hard man. He could be some signifying mug. I’ll take the safe
assumption. Factor in that we are in Pattaya, and that increases the likelihood that he is
Russian. For some reason that plays into my calculations. Russian in Pattaya right now
possibly signifies avoiding Ukraine, possibly signals an erring towards transgression. Not
everyone has a gun tattooed on the side of their head.

I’m overthinking this—he deferred to me. And the smile seemed genuine.

Base rates matter. Not everyone has a gun tattooed on the side of their head. People who do
are either genuinely signalling they are dangerous, or they are signalling that they want you
to think that they are dangerous. If it’s fifty-fifty it’s probably best to err on the side of
caution. If every frat boy in America suddenly got a gun tattooed on the side of their head
there would be no valid danger signal at all. The smile seemed genuine.

What to do for Essay Saturday Run BOTH — but not as two big blocks. Primary CTA (most weeks): Newsletter (captures value, builds the list, improves repeat visits, makes future asks cheaper). Secondary CTA (every 2–3 weeks, or on your strongest essays): Donation (for your US 501(c)(3) audience, yes). If you force a single choice: newsletter first. Donations second. Where each CTA should live Mid-article: Newsletter (best for interruptions that don’t feel like begging). End of article: Donation (after they’ve gotten value). Exception: If the essay is mission-aligned / emotionally charged / topical, you can flip it: donation mid-article + newsletter at end. Fix your donation block (yours is too generic + too “dark”) Your current block: “Support Essay Saturday” is fine, but it doesn’t tell me what $10 does Black button is off-brand for Litro (use Litro red) No 501(c)(3) reassurance in the block No soft alternative for people who can’t donate Use this instead (clean, specific, still short):

Genuine smiles differ from fake smiles. Fake smiles only engage muscles around the mouth.
Real smiles, referred to as Duchenne smiles for the guy who first observed this, also engage
muscles around the eyes. This is spontaneous and automatic. You can’t control it. You can’t
fake it.

And people are generally pretty good at spotting the difference. There’s a big difference
between cultural bodily signals, like clothes, hair, make-up, piercings, and head-side gun
tattoos, and biological bodily signals such as facial expressions. The former exist,
maintaining their relevance, within a temporal bubble lasting between maybe a few
hundred years to maybe a few months. The latter are part of our evolutionary machinery.

I used to think that smiles were “affiliative” or “friendship” signals, but I have come to the
realisation that they are primarily “safety” signals. His permanent tattoo says, I might be
dangerous, but the smile he flashes says, I’m not a danger—at the moment.

I remember that the Prophet said a smile is an act of charity. It eases your fellow’s nervous
system. A tiny donation to the general fund of human ease.

We get all kinds of signals from faces. Some from expressions, others from skin tone and
wrinkles. A lack of wrinkles signals youth and beauty.

Botulinum toxin type A (Botox) blocks nerve signals around the eyes, reducing crow’s feet
and frown lines, faking a younger-looking face.

In the universe next door, the tattoo-head guy is more concerned with looking youthful. He
injects Botox. We stand at the bar. He turns and looks at me.

Charming eyeless smile of a serial killer.

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